Rule-based forecasting (RBF) uses rules to combine forecasts from simple extrapolation methods. Weights for combining the rules use statistical and domain-based features of time series. RBF was originally developed, tested, and validated only on annual data. For the M3-Competition, three major...

Predicting the risk of corporate bankruptcy is one of the most important challenges for researchers dealing with the issue of financial health evaluation. The risk of corporate bankruptcy is most often assessed with the use of early warning models. The results of these models are significantly...

It is well established in the literature that customer retention is at least as important as customer acquisition, especially in the freemium-based virtual economy, in which individuals are connected by multi-relational social networks, such as the “friendships” and “guilds” (virtual...

This paper shows that a production network facilitates expectations-driven business cycles. Through input-output linkages, changes in expected demand can cause business-cycle fluctuations and endogenous movements in the Solow residual. When inputs must be purchased one period in advance,...

We propose a methodology for forecasting the systemic impact of financial institutions in interconnected systems. Utilizing a five-year sample including the 2008/9 financial crisis, we demonstrate how the approach can be used for timely systemic risk monitoring of large European banks and...