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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009614994
Can Google queries help predict economic activity?The answer depends on what you mean by "predict." Google Trends and Google Insights for Search provide a real time report on query volume, while economic data is typically released several days after the close of the month. Given this time lag,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013115806
This article describes a system for short term forecasting based on an ensemble prediction that averages over different combinations of predictors. The system combines a structural time series model for the target series with regression component capturing the contributions of contemporaneous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078336
We consider the problem of short-term time series forecasting (nowcasting) when there are more possible predictors than observations. Our approach combines three Bayesian techniques: Kalman filtering, spike-and-slab regression, and model averaging. We illustrate this approach using search engine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013062413
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010205275
We consider the problem of short-term time series forecasting (nowcasting) when there are more possible predictors than observations. Our approach combines three Bayesian techniques: Kalman filtering, spike-and-slab regression, and model averaging. We illustrate this approach using search engine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459094
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014546807