Price movements in industrial metals such as copper and aluminum predict stock returns. Increasing industrial metal prices are good news for equity markets in recessions and bad news in expansions. A one standard deviation increase in industrial metal returns predicts a price drop of one and a...

We show that the previously documented predictability of macroeconomic and technical variables for market returns is also evident in individual stock returns. Technical variables generate better predictability on firms with higher limits to arbitrage (smaller, illiquid, volatile firms), while...

This study shows that 14 widely documented technical indicators explain cross-sectional stock expected returns. The technical indicators have lower estimation errors than the three-factor Fama-French model and the historical mean. The long-short portfolios based on the cross-sectional estimated...

This study shows that 14 widely documented technical indicators explain cross-sectional stock expected returns. The technical indicators have lower estimation errors than the three-factor Fama-French model and the historical mean. The long-short portfolios based on the cross-sectional estimated...

A substantial amount is incurred in ETF transaction costs each year. This paper examines the performance of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model and other naïve models to time trades in 1,350 ETFs over the 2011 to 2017 period. We find varied spread savings for large and retail ETF traders by...