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A particularly important issue in retirement income provision is longevity risk. There are two components to longevity risk. The first is the uncertainty over how long any particular pension scheme member is going to live after retirement. This is known as idiosyncratic longevity risk. Both...
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In the field of mortality, the Lee–Carter based approach can be considered the milestone to forecast mortality rates …–Carter model, the κ t parameter, describing the mortality trend over time, plays an important role about the future mortality … behavior. The traditional ARIMA process usually used to model κ t shows evident limitations to describe the future mortality …
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Estimation of future mortality rates still plays a central role among life insurers in pricing their products and … managing longevity risk. In the literature on mortality modeling, a wide number of stochastic models have been proposed, most … of them forecasting future mortality rates by extrapolating one or more latent factors. The abundance of proposed models …
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future mortality rates. It can be argued that there are two types of mortality models using this approach. The first extracts …-parametric smoothing techniques to model mortality and thus has no explicit constraints placed on the model. We argue that from a … using Great Britain male mortality data from 1950–2016. We also conduct a robustness test to see how sensitive the forecasts …
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