This paper studies the performance of alternative prediction models for conflict. The analysis contrasts the … correlates of conflict to minimize the prediction loss function, and (2) an algorithm that chooses a set of thresholds for the … same variables, together with the number of breaches of thresholds that constitute a prediction of conflict, that minimize …

This paper studies the performance of alternative prediction models for conflict. The analysis contrasts the … correlates of conflict to minimize the prediction loss function, and (2) an algorithm that chooses a set of thresholds for the … same variables, together with the number of breaches of thresholds that constitute a prediction of conflict, that minimize …

Policymakers can take actions to prevent local conflict before it begins, if such violence can be accurately predicted …

are commonly linked to conflict incidence. A logit model is fitted to sub-national data for Africa at grid-cell level … predictor of future conflict is current conflict incidence in the grid-cell and neighbouring cells. Additionally, the infant … conflict dynamics. Finally, the presented results are based on a relatively simple regression model commonly used in the …

Policymakers can take actions to prevent local conflict before it begins, if such violence can be accurately predicted …