The purpose of this paper is to forecast Fiji's exports and imports for the period 2003-2020. Design/methodology/approach - To achieve the goal of this paper, the autoregressive moving average with explanatory variables (ARMAX) model was applied. To this end, the paper drew on the published...

Globalization has led to huge increases in import volumes, but the literature on import forecasting is still in its infancy. We introduce the first leading indicator especially constructed for total import growth, the so-called Import Climate. It builds on the idea that the import demand of the...

Globalization has led to huge increases in import volumes, increasing the importance of imports for total output. Since imports are a volatile component, they are difficult to forecast and strongly influence the forecast accuracy of gross domestic product. We introduce the first leading...