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The paper seeks to develop a predictive model for assessing the impact of the (COVID-19) pandemic on the economies of Eastern Europe, taking into account quarantine measures. Functions of the dependence on the number of the infected populations in Eastern Europe on pandemic duration were...
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We evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errors for export growth than indicators obtained … with country-specific export compositions. A larger share in raw material or oil exports worsens the accuracy of soft … indicators, we find only weak evidence for the export composition to explain differences in forecast accuracy. …
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hierarchically by export destination and product category. We apply existing state of the art methods in forecast reconciliation and …
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