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Does Historical Volatility Term Structure Contain Valuable Information for Predicting Volatility and Index Futures?

Jablecki, Juliusz - 2014

We suggest that the term structure of volatility futures (e.g. VIX futures) shows a clear pattern of dependence on the … level (over 30) it is strongly downward sloping. We use those features to better predict future volatility and index futures …. We begin by introducing some quantitative measures of volatility term structure (VTS) and volatility risk premium (VRP …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013046744

Discrete wavelet transform-based prediction of stock index : a study on national stock exchange fifty index

Jothimani, Dhanya; Shankar, Ravi; Yadav, Surendra S. - In: Journal of financial management and analysis : … 28 (2015) 2, pp. 35-49

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011535334

Forecast rationality and monetary policy frameworks : evidence from UK interest rate forecasts

Georgios Chortareas, Georgios; Boonlert Jitmaneeroj; … - In: Journal of international financial markets, … 22 (2012) 1, pp. 209-231

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009540826

Fundamental disagreement about monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates

Cao, Shuo; Crump, Richard K.; Eusepi, Stefano; Mönch, … - 2021 - Revised August 2021

Using a unique data set of individual professional forecasts, we document disagreement about the future path of monetary policy, particularly at longer horizons. The stark differences in short rate forecasts imply strong disagreement about the risk-return trade-off of longer-term bonds....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012249767