We present a new way to model age-specific demographic variables with the example of age-specific mortality in the U … jointly with the latent variables underlying mortality of all age classes. In contrast to previous models, a similar … forecasts for particular age classes. A structural analysis of the relationship between age-specific mortality and covariates is …

for Germany is derived through a stochastic population renewal process using forecasts of mortality, fertility and … indices of mortality and fertility rates. These models are then used in the simulation of future vital rates to obtain age …

mortality models. The framework we adopt is to reinterpret popular mortality models such as the Lee-Carter class of models in a … general state-space modelling methodology, which allows modelling, estimation and forecasting of mortality under a unified … inference. We then develop a novel class of Bayesian state-space models which incorporate apriori beliefs about the mortality …