Time-varying parameter (TVP) models are very flexible in capturing gradual changes in the effect of explanatory variables on the outcome variable. However, in particular when the number of explanatory variables is large, there is a known risk of overfitting and poor predictive performance, since...

We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model which accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for a...