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Forecasting economic decisions under risk : the predictive importance of choice-process data
Mueller, Steffen Q.; Ring, Patrick; Schmidt, Maria - 2019 - Version: January 2019
characteristics, past gambling behavior, eye-movements, and various psychophysiological measures that are recorded during the first … three seconds of lottery-information processing. The results of our forecasting experiment show that choice-process data can … effectively be used to forecast risky gambling decisions; however, we find large differences among models’ forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011964372
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Better calibration when predicting from experience (rather than description)
Camilleri, Adrian R.; Newell, Benjamin R. - In: Organizational behavior and human decision processes : … 150 (2019), pp. 62-82
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011990691
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Overconfidence bias and conjunction fallacy in predicting outcomes of football matches
Erceg, Nikola; Galić, Zvonimir - In: Journal of economic psychology : research in economic … 42 (2014), pp. 52-62
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010428829
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How well can experts predict farmers' choices in risky gambles?
Schaak, Henning; Rommel, Jens; Sagebiel, Julian; … - 2023
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014305725
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The mechanisms of information integration in experimental prediction markets
Jolly, Richard D.; Zwick, Martin; Wakeland, Wayne; … - In: International journal of economics and business research 9 (2015) 1, pp. 100-129
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011332880
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Forecasting hypothetical bias : a tale of two calibrations
Norwood, F. Bailey; Lusk, Jayson L.; Boyer, Tracy - In: Environmental economics, experimental methods, (pp. 447-465). 2008
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003647713
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Predicting versus testing : a conditional cross-forecasting accuracy measure for hypothetical bias
Volinskiy, Dmitriy; Adamowicz, Wiktor; Veeman, Michele M. - In: The Australian journal of agricultural and resource … 55 (2011) 3, pp. 429-450
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009376110
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How to Reveal People's Preferences : Comparing Time Consistency and Predictive Power of Multiple Price List Risk Elicitation Methods
Csermely, Tamás - 2015
method, the multiple price list (MPL) and its derivations. In our experiment, we find that revealed preferences differ under …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013027098
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Predicting Variation in Endowment Effect Magnitudes
Jaeger, Christopher Brett; Brosnan, Sarah F.; Levin, Daniel - 2020
evolutionary theory, we derived six factors that predicted 52% of the between-item variation in magnitudes for a novel set of 24 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014096022
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Efficient prediction of excess returns
Faust, Jon; Wright, Jonathan H. - 2008
"It is well known that augmenting a standard linear regression model with variables that are correlated with the error term but uncorrelated with the original regressors will increase asymptotic efficiency of the original coefficients. We argue that in the context of predicting excess returns,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003739239