This paper studies whether gravity model parameters estimated in one geographic area can give reasonable predictions of commuting ows in another. To do this, three sets of parameters are estimated for geographically proximate yet separate regions in south-west Norway. All possible combinations...

In this note we explore the following surprising fact: In regression with trend and seasonality, the prediction risk is constant for all seasons of a new cycle, despite the fact that it increases with time when the seasons are left out. Awareness of this may be useful to both the practicing...

In this paper, we propose a likelihood ratio and Markov chain based method to evaluate density forecasting. This method can jointly evaluate the unconditional forecasted distribution and dependence of the outcomes. This method is an extension of the widely applied evaluation method for interval...