We estimate an implied value premium (IVP) using the implied cost of capital methodology. The implied value premium is the difference between the implied costs of capital of value stocks and growth stocks and is a direct estimate of the difference in expected returns between value stocks and...

Theoretically, the implied cost of capital (ICC) is a good proxy for time-varying expected returns. We find that aggregate ICC strongly predicts future excess market returns at horizons ranging from one month to four years. This predictive power persists even in the presence of popular valuation...