In this paper we face the fitting versus forecasting paradox with the objective of realizing an optimal Early Warning …

This paper compares the true, ex-ante forecasting performance of a micro-based model against both a standard macro … model and a random walk. In contrast to existing literature, which is focused on longer horizon forecasting, we examine … forecasting over horizons from one day to one month (the one-month horizon being where micro and macro analysis begin to overlap …

policy analysis and forecasting. NEMO has been used to identify the sources of business cycle fluctuations in Norway, to … historical shock and forecast-error-variance decompositions, and assessing its forecasting performance against a suite of …

This paper provides an assessment of the macroeconomic models regularly used for forecasting and policy analysis in the …-based analysis for monetary policy preparation and forecasting and provides recommendations and suggestions for improvement. Finally …

of forecasting ability than either single country economic variables. These findings are of economic importance from an …

coefficients is used in the forecasting regression. We find evidence of predictability with the Taylor rule fundamentals model for …