We develop a forecasting model of GDP growth that features regime-switching behavior and an error-correction mechanism (ECM). Regime changes are manifested in the behavior of a stochastic regime drift component that moves between expansionary and contractionary phases, thus generating cycles in...

The track record of a sixteen-year history of density forecasts of state tax revenue in Iowa is studied, and potential improvements sought through a search for better performing priors similar to that conducted two decades ago for point forecasts by Doan, Litterman, and Sims (Econometric...