What is the probability of high inflation; how high, when? These questions are important to all investors since even … characterizes this as The War On Savers. Higher inflation is possible, at 4% or more, with even worse effects. There are heated … debates about the probability and timing of high inflation, but our review of the extensive literature reveals no reliable way …

We explore the ability of traditional core inflation – consumer prices excluding food and energy – to predict headline … CPI annual inflation. We analyze a sample of OECD and non-OECD economies using monthly data from January 1994 to March … common wisdom about the ability of core inflation to forecast headline inflation, and suggest a careful weighting of the …

We explore the ability of core inflation to predict headline CPI annual inflation for a sample of 8 developing … sample of developing countries are currently implementing or given steps toward the future implementation of inflation … targeting regimes, which are heavily based on long run inflation forecasts …

We introduce a new measure called Inflation-at-Risk (I@R) associated with (left and right) tail inflation risk. We … estimate I@R using survey-based density forecasts. We show that it contains information not covered by usual inflation risk … indicators which focus on inflation uncertainty and do not distinguish between the risks of low or high future inflation outcomes …

support of production of the projections produced for the Monetary Policy Committee's quarterly Inflation Reports. In this …

predict inflation, interest rates, unemployment, income, stock prices, and the housing market. The results cast doubt on the … allocation, and economic forecasting. The third paper, An Inflation Expectations Horserace, examines the use of high …-frequency versus low-frequency inflation expectations data. I present a collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations …

-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the … inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary component and dynamic short-run fluctuations around it. An important … quantity to be forecast. This makes it possible to form a single model-based inflation forecast that also incorporates the …

-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the … inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary component and dynamic short-run fluctuations around it. An important … quantity to be forecast. This makes it possible to form a single model-based inflation forecast that also incorporates the …