estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and … measure appears superior to all others in all respects. - Output gap ; real-time data ; euro area ; inflation forecasts ; real …

The purpose of the present paper is to investigate perceived inflation gap persistence using actual data of … professional forecasts. We derive the unobserved perceived inflation gap persistence and using a state dependent model we estimate … the non-linear persistence coefficient of inflation gap. Our main result is that for GDP deflator inflation, the estimates …

The past years were characterized by unprecedented rises in prices of commodities such as oil or wheat and inflation … indicate future CPI inflation and if they can be used as indicator variables for central banks or not. We apply various … strong link between commodity prices and CPI inflation in the 1970s and the beginning of the 1980s. For a more recent sample …

inflation dynamics …

Central to the conduct of monetary policy are inflation forecasts. Inflation forecast are not unique. Central banks and … professional organizations generate inflation forecasts while households are surveyed about their inflation outlook. This paper … estimates inflation forecast disagreement for nine economies over the 1999-2009 period, five of which target inflation. I find …

This paper focuses on modelling and forecasting inflation in India using an augmented Phillips curve framework. Both … demand and supply factors are seen as drivers of inflation. Demand conditions are found to have a stronger impact on non …-food manufactured products inflation (NFMP) vis-a-vis headline WPI inflation; moreover, NFMP is found to be more persistent than …

striking negative correlation between the evolution of the long-run coefficient on inflation in the monetary rule and the … evolution of the persistence and predictability of inflation relative to a trend component. Using a standard sticky-price model …, we show that a more aggressive policy stance towards inflation causes a decline in inflation predictability, providing a …

We explore the ability of traditional core inflation – consumer prices excluding food and energy – to predict headline … CPI annual inflation. We analyze a sample of OECD and non-OECD economies using monthly data from January 1994 to March … common wisdom about the ability of core inflation to forecast headline inflation, and suggest a careful weighting of the …

inflation rates. With a few exceptions, this accomplishment was a global one. Motivated by concerns over whether the relentless … easing of policy in economies most stricken by the US and euro zone financial crises may lead to higher future inflation …, this paper examines inflation forecast performance along several dimensions. The focus is on 12 economies in Asia and the …