This paper presents one of the inflation forecasting models used by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank in its recent inflation forecasts. The model attempts to integrate all the properties of the former models considered by the author as being advantageous and desirable into a unified framework. Thus, this...

In the context of the multivariate Normal regression model, a mean squared error of prediction is developed for making the choice of subset of explanatory variables for predicting the response variable in future samples

A general statistical modeling problem is that given a class of competing models and new data, how one can improve the overall model performance. In general, there exist two solutions for this problem, namely model selection and model combination. Model selection is to select a single best model...

We propose a flexible GARCH-type model for the prediction of volatility in financial time series. The approach relies on the idea of using multivariate B-splines of lagged observations and volatilities. Estimation of such a B-spline basis expansion is constructed within the likelihood framework...

We enhance the theory of asymptotic inference about predictive ability by considering the case when a set of variables used to construct predictions is sizable. To this end, we consider an alternative asymptotic framework where the number of predictors tends to infinity with the sample size,...

We investigate on-line prediction of individual sequences. Given a class of predictors, the goal is to predict as well as the best predictor in the class, where the loss is measured by the self information (logarithmic) loss function. The excess loss (regret) is closely related to the redundancy...

A aplicação de métricas de risco na EDP é fundamental não só para apoio à decisão sobre operações de Trading no mercado de electricidade e de combustíveis, como também, na tomada de decisões no âmbito do Plano de Negócios com base numa avaliação periódica do nível de risco de...

Existing results on the properties and performance of forecast combinations have been derived in the context of mean squared error loss. Under this loss function empirical studies have generally found that estimates of optimal forecast combination weights lead to higher losses than...

Some observers have worried that under or over-estimating the output gap may unnecessarily induce tightening or loosening of monetary conditions, causing real fluctuations. To investigate the relationship between the output gap and inflation, we examine models of inflation that do and do not use...