Das ifo Instiut hat ein neues Handbuch der umfragebasierten Konjunkturforschung erstellt. Das Handbuch gibt einen Überblick über die regelmäßigen Befragungsaktivitäten des Instituts und zeigt Möglichkeiten der wissenschaftlichen Verwertung der Befragungsergebnisse im Rahmen der...

We use a previously unexploited consensus survey data set to compare accuracy, unbiasedness and efficiency of Current Account growth forecasts between two panels of 25 developed and 18 developing countries following the methodologies in the existing literature. Forecast errors are bigger for the...

This paper seeks to enhance forecast accuracy by combining three individual forecasting models. These models include: the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA), the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic model (GARCH), and the Census X11 model. Applied to the...

We propose a dynamic factor model for nowcasting the growth rate of quarterly real{{p}}Canadian gross domestic product. We show that the proposed model produces more accurate nowcasts than those produced by institutional forecasters, like the Bank of Canada, the The Organisation for Economic...

Real gross domestic product (GDP) data in Turkey are released with a very long delay compared with other economies, between 10 and 13 weeks after the end of the reference quarter. To infer the current state of the economy, policy makers, media, and market practitioners examine data that are more...

We present new results for the likelihood-based analysis of the dynamic factor model that possibly includes intercepts and explanatory variables. The latent factors are modelled by stochastic processes. The idiosyncratic disturbances are specified as autoregressive processes with mutually...

Emerging-market economies have become increasingly important in driving global GDP growth over the past 10 to 15 years. This has made timely and accurate assessment of current and future economic activity in emerging markets important for policy-makers not only in these countries but also in...