In recent years, social media has become ubiquitous and important for social networking and content sharing. And yet, the content that is generated from these websites remains largely untapped. In this paper we demonstrate how social media content can be used to predict real-world outcomes. In...

We present a method for accurately predicting the long time popularity of online content from early measurements of user's access. Using two content sharing portals, Youtube and Digg, we show that by modeling the accrual of views and votes on content offered by these services we can predict the...

We describe a new mechanism that induces accurate forecasts within an organization while reducing moral hazards and the stigma associated with negative opinions. It is based on the notion of identity escrow, whereby the identity of a forecaster is kept anonymous and only revealed when a number...

We study human learning in a individual choice laboratory task called Orange Juice Futures price forecasting (OJF), in which subjects must implicitly learn the coefficients of two independent variables in a stationary linear stochastic process. The 99 subjects each forecast in 480 trials with...

This chapter reports several robustness checks. OJ specifications designed to capture prior beliefs and non-linear responses to news detected some transient effects in many subjects, but for the most part the final regression is indistinguishable from the basic specification presented in this...