results suggest that euro-area inflation forecasts have reacted less to unemployment forecasts after the start of the … financial crisis but another cost measure (energy inflation) remains significant. This finding is consistent with a flatter … better anchoring of inflation expectations and increases in structural unemployment do not seem to find support in the survey …

We show that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) outperforms standard benchmarks in forecasting U.S. inflation once … frequency-domain information is taken into account. We do so by decomposing the time series (of inflation and its predictors …) into several frequency bands and forecasting separately each frequency component of inflation. The largest statistically …

Policymakers and researchers see inflation characterized by cyclical fluctuations driven by changes in resource … utilization and temporary shocks, around a trend influenced by inflation expectations. We study the in-sample inflation dynamics … and forecast inflation out-of-sample by analyzing a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) in the frequency domain. In …

This paper revisits inflation forecasting using reduced-form Phillips curve forecasts, that is, inflation forecasts … inflation, a host of real-activity data, term structure data, nominal data, and surveys. In each individual specification, we … deflator inflation rates for the United States in the post-World War II period. Over the full 1960-2008 sample, the framework …

revisit claims in the literature that money growth is Granger-causal for inflation at low frequencies. Applying frequency …-specific tests in a comprehensive system setup for euro-area data we consider various theoretical predictors of inflation. A general … Granger-causal for low-frequency inflation movements, and all variables affect money growth. We therefore interpret opposite …

We run out-of-sample forecasts for the inflation rate of 15 euro-zone countries using a NAIRU Phillips curve and a …

-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the … inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary component and dynamic short-run fluctuations around it. An important … quantity to be forecast. This makes it possible to form a single model-based inflation forecast that also incorporates the …

The authors conduct an empirical analysis of the role of labor market activities in inflation and conclude that wage … growth is not very informative for predicting price inflation. But price inflation does seem to help predict wage growth …

-mean autoregressive model can be used to describe characteristic features in inflation series. This implies that we decompose the … inflation process into a slowly moving nonstationary component and dynamic short-run fluctuations around it. An important … quantity to be forecast. This makes it possible to form a single model-based inflation forecast that also incorporates the …

In this paper, we study the fit and the predictive performance of the Phillips curve for euro area inflation with … regard to different inflation series, time periods and predictor variables, notably different global factors. We compare the … prices, global consumer inflation, global economic slack and foreign demand. We find that traditional global indicators such …