In this paper we develop a small open economy model explaining the joint determination of output, inflation, interest rates, unemployment and the exchange rate in a multi-country framework. Our model – the Halle Economic Projection Model (HEPM) – is closely related to studies recently...

Die Wirtschaftskrise der Jahre 2008/2009 hat auch die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in den ostdeutschen Bundesländern negativ beeinflusst. Am Beispiel des Landes Brandenburg wird dargestellt, wie diese Wirkungen mit Hilfe amtlicher Statistiken analysiert werden können. Erforderlich erscheint...

This paper compares two single-equation approaches from the recent nowcast literature: Mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions and bridge equations. Both approach are used to nowcast a low-frequency variable such as quarterly GDP growth by higher-frequency business cycle indicators. Three...

This paper attempts to evaluate the information content of money for the forecast of inflation, output, investment and consumption in the euro zone. It considers M1 and M3; a number of modifications to these aggregates is also proposed to enhance their forecast performance. The evaluation employs...