Financial market efficiency has been constantly challenged with new evidence of calendar anomalies in the stock market. This paper examines the existence and predictability of the turn-of-the-month effect at Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI), Seoul Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) and Tokyo...

The Baker and Wurgler (2006) sentiment index purports to measure irrational investor sentiment, while the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is designed to largely reflect fundamentals. Removing this fundamental component from the Baker and Wurgler index creates an index of investor...

The literature on stock return predictability has identified macroeconomic and technical predictors that when combined, leads to out-of-sample outperformance relative to the historical mean null. This paper investigates a new method for aggregating information beyond using forecast combination...

Noisy markets need extensive descriptions that are noisy themselves, such as deep regression trees that capture many data-local nonlinear anomalies and that do not require arbitrary weighting schemes like traditional linear multifactor models often do. Simple tools allow extraction of general...

As some recent studies have shown empirically, future gold price fluctuations are especially difficult to forecast. Against this background, this study evaluates the forecasting power of three methods that have been applied successfully in a stock market prediction context: 1) technical...

Our research on data for the S&P 500 ETF from 1993-2013 documents an intraday momentum pattern: the first half-hour return on the market (from the previous day's close) predicts the last half-hour return. The predictability, both statistically and economically significant, is stronger on more...

We explore the predictive relation between high-frequency investor sentiment and stock market returns. Our results are based on a proprietary dataset of high-frequency investor sentiment, which is computed based on a comprehensive textual analysis of sources from news wires, internet news...

This paper focuses on the investment value of information contained in the tails of the analyst forecast distribution. I determine the investment value of the tails by looking at dissident analysts -- who release EPS forecasts far from the prevailing consensus. I then test the hypothesis that...

Price movements in industrial metals such as copper and aluminum predict stock returns. Increasing industrial metal prices are good news for equity markets in recessions and bad news in expansions. A one standard deviation increase in industrial metal returns predicts a price drop of one and a...