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The universal shape of economic recession and recovery after a shock
Challet, Damien; Solomon, Sorin; Yaari, Gur - 2009
We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during times of recession and recovery. We then argue that this equation is the response function of the economy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003881293
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Forecast Disagreement about Long-run Macroeconomic Relationships
Kuang, Pei - 2020
Using survey forecast data, we study if professional forecasters utilize long-run co-integration relationships among macroeconomic variables to forecast future as postulated in workhorse stochastic growth models. There exists a significant heterogeneity among forecasters, the majority of whom do...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012832555
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Opportunity Costs, Productive Arbitrage, and Medium-Term Economic Growth Forecasting
Smirnov, Oleg A. - 2012
The paper proposes a novel theory-based approach to economic growth prediction. In the economy populated with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100255
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A munkaerő-piaci előrejelzések nemzetközi gyakorlata : áttekintés a kvantitatív módszerekről és felhasználásukról 12 ország és az Európai Unió előrejelzési tapasztalatai alapján...
Gács, János; Bíró, Anikó - 2013
The study presents a comprehensive overview of labour market forecasting activities, mostly quantitative, based on multi-sector models, in 12 countries and the European Union. The principal aim of this effort is to provide ideas, lessons and benchmarks for similar forecasting exercises in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009727249
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A munkaerő-piaci előrejelzések nemzetközi gyakorlata -áttekintés a kvantitatív módszerekről és felhasználásukról
Gács, János; Bíró, Anikó - 2012
The study was prepared in the framework of the "Priority Project TÁMOP - 2.3.2-09/1: Establishing labour market forecasts and foreseeing structural changes". It presents a comprehensive overview of labour market forecasting activities, mostly quantitative, based on multi-sector models, in 12...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009632204
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Sequential precision of predictions in models of economic growth
Krasovskii, Andrey A.; Tarasyev, Alexander M. - In: Dynamic systems, economic growth, and the environment, (pp. 23-43). 2010
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003917002
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Long-run growth forecasting
Bergheim, Stefan - 2008
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003603498
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Long-Run Growth Forecasting
Bergheim, Stefan (contributor) - 2008
This book explores how to set up an empirical model that helps with forecasting long-term economic growth in a large number of countries. It offers a systematic approach to models of potential GDP that can also be used for forecasts of more than a decade. It is an attempt to fill the wide gap...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013520921
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Forecasting some low-predictability time series using diffusion indices
Brisson, Marc; Campbell, Bryan; Galbraith, John W. - In: Journal of forecasting 22 (2003) 6/7, pp. 515-531
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001836498
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Growth Forecast Errors and Government Investment and Consumption Multipliers
Jovanovic, Branimir - 2015
We compare the government investment and government consumption multipliers in the advanced economies during the recent … investment multiplier is likely to be much higher than what has been assumed by the policy makers and much higher that the … consumption multiplier. This points out that the consolidation should be accompanied by increased public investment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013034547