Motivated by prediction problems for time series with heavy-tailed marginal distributions, we consider methods based on 'local least absolute deviations' for estimating a regression median from dependent data. Unlike more conventional 'local median' methods, which are in effect based on locally...

This paper argues that econometric analysis of housing price indexes before 2006 generated forecasts of future long-term price growth and low estimated probabilities of extreme price decreases. These forecasts of future increases in home-loan collateral values may have affected both the demand...

This paper argues that econometric analysis of housing price indexes before 2006 generated forecasts of future long-term price growth and low estimated probabilities of extreme price decreases. These forecasts of future increases in home-loan collateral values may have affected both the demand...

Previous research finds that the cap rate, that is, the income-price ratio of commercial real estate, predicts future investment returns. This finding's implication on the efficiency of the real estate market crucially depends on whether the cap rate also predicts future risk. Using accurately...

In studies of time series momentum (TSM), the Newey-West t-test has size distortion for linear predictive regression with excess returns because of non-stationarity, endogeneity due to correlated errors, and a lack of finite moments due to heavy tails. To solve these problems, we propose a new...

Analysis of data from the HMDA loan data base and LoanPerformance.com at the MSA level and at the loan level substantiates both supply and demand effects of past price trends in housing markets, particularly with respect to subprime mortgage applications and approvals. At the MSA level, past...