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Evaluating macroeconomic forecasts : a concise review of some recent developments
Franses, Philip Hans; McAleer, Michael; Legerstee, Rianne - 2012
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009562948
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Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle
Dovern, Jonas; Jannsen, Nils - 2015
relationship between a change in trend growth rates and forecast bias, as suggested in the literature, breaks down when only …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010486869
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Bias, rationality and asymmetric loss functions
Bürgi, Constantin - In: Economics letters 154 (2017), pp. 113-116
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011815207
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Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle
Dovern, Jonas; Jannsen, Nils - In: International journal of forecasting 33 (2017) 4, pp. 760-769
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011746905
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A comprehensive empirical evaluation of biases in expectation formation
Eva, Kenneth; Winkler, Fabian - 2023
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014384527
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Do Attitudes About Immigration Predict Willingness to Admit Individual Immigrants? A Cross-National Test of the Person-Positivity Bias
Iyengar, Shanto - 2016
applicability of the “person-positivity bias” to immigration and investigate the effects of economic and cultural “deservingness” on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012982978
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Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments
Hommes, Cars H.; Kopányi-Peuker, Anita; Sonnemans, Joep - 2019
We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625
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Estimating fundamental cross-section dispersion from fixed event forecasts
Dovern, Jonas (contributor); Fritsche, Ulrich (contributor) - 2008
A couple of recent papers have shifted the focus towards disagreement of professional forecasters. When dealing with survey data that is sampled at a frequency higher than annual and that includes only fixed event forecasts, e.g. expectation of average annual growth rates measures of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003726076
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What point of a distribution summarises point predictions?
Kröger, Sabine; Pierrot, Thibaud - 2019
of an iid random variable. We set up a laboratory experiment where the participants act as forecasters predicting the … their central tendencies. As is standard in survey measures, the subjects in our experiment must report their best guess of … the experiment are based on a percentile while almost 60% are based on a numerical value. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115998
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Comparison of different question formats eliciting point predictions
Kröger, Sabine; Pierrot, Thibaud - 2019
laboratory experiment in which the participants act as forecasters and are asked to predict the next realisation of iid random …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115999