We propose a new approach to evaluating copula-based multivariate density forecasts. Employing Hansen’s SPA test and conducting multiple comparisons of fully-parametric models, our approach accommodates possible misspecifications in the multivariate joint and the univariate marginal...

This paper examines the time-varying dependence structure of commodity futures portfolios based on multivariate dynamic copula models. The importance of accounting for time-variation is emphasized in the context of the Basel traffic light system. We enhance the exibility of this structure by...