Purpose: In this study, we empirically demonstrate how the new variable of "cyclical consumption" can capture consumption risk and predict expected stock returns, which relationship is stronger and should be considered as the primary macro indicator for stock markets between KOSPI and KOSDAQ,...

This paper examines whether the successful bid rate of the OnBid public auction, published by Korea Asset Management Corporation, can identify and forecast the Korea business-cycle expansion and contraction regimes characterized by the OECD reference turning points. We use logistic regression...