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What point of a distribution summarises point predictions?
Kröger, Sabine; Pierrot, Thibaud - 2019
of an iid random variable. We set up a laboratory experiment where the participants act as forecasters predicting the … their central tendencies. As is standard in survey measures, the subjects in our experiment must report their best guess of … the experiment are based on a percentile while almost 60% are based on a numerical value. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115998
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Comparison of different question formats eliciting point predictions
Kröger, Sabine; Pierrot, Thibaud - 2019
laboratory experiment in which the participants act as forecasters and are asked to predict the next realisation of iid random …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012115999
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Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments
Hommes, Cars H.; Kopányi-Peuker, Anita; Sonnemans, Joep - 2019
We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625
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Individual expectations and aggregate behavior in learning to forecast experiments
Hommes, Cars (contributor); Lux, Thomas (contributor) - 2008
Models with heterogeneous interacting agents explain macro phenomena through interactions at the micro level. We propose genetic algorithms as a model for individual expectations to explain aggregate market phenomena. The model explains all stylized facts observed in aggregate price fluctuations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003777257
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Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior
Assenza, Tiziana - 2011
The way in which individual expectations shape aggregate macroeconomic variables is crucial for the transmission and effectiveness of monetary policy. We study the individual expectations formation process and the interaction with monetary policy, within a standard New Keynesian model, by means...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013118974
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Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior
Assenza, Tiziana - 2015
The way in which individual expectations shape aggregate macroeconomic variables is crucial for the transmission and effectiveness of monetary policy. We study the individual expectations formation process and the interaction with monetary policy, within a standard New Keynesian model, by means...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013036084
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Individual expectations and aggregate macro behavior
Assenza, Tiziana; Heemeijer, Peter; Hommes, Cars H.; … - 2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191431
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Correlated Beliefs : Predicting Outcomes in 2×2 Games
Cason, Timothy N. - 2019
Studies of strategic sophistication in experimental normal form games commonly assume that subjects' beliefs are consistent with independent choice. This paper examines whether beliefs are consistent with correlated choice. Players play a sequence of simple 2×2 normal form games with distinct...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012890126
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Predicting and Understanding Initial Play
Fudenberg, Drew - 2019
We use machine learning to uncover regularities in the initial play of matrix games. We first train a prediction algorithm on data from past experiments. Examining the games where our algorithm predicts correctly, but existing economic models don't, leads us to add a parameter to the best...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012900561
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Predictive behavior : an experimental study
Brennscheidt, Gunnar - 1993
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000877906