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The implied volatility from Black and Scholes (1973) model has been empirically tested for the forecasting performance … of future volatility and commonly shown to be biased. Based on the belief that the implied volatility from option prices … is the best estimate of future volatility, this study tries to find out a better model, which can derive the implied …
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volatility as having its own stochastic process, broadens the applications into derivative pricing purposes, risk assessment and …This paper builds and implements a multifactor stochastic volatility model for the latent (and observable) volatility … Carlo simulation methodologies for estimation, inference, and model adequacy assessment. Stochastic volatility is the main …
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This article proposes a simple and intuitive framework to combine a discrete volatility forecast series produced by a …-combining binomial trees that capture the distributional properties of the volatility forecasts. Finally, the framework is employed to …
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An accurate weather forecast is the basis for the valuation of weather derivatives, securities that partially compensate for financial losses to holders in case of, from their perspective, adverse outside temperature. The paper analyses precision of two forecast models of average daily...
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In this paper we investigate VIX dynamics through a two-factor Gaussian model, following Avellaneda and Papanicolaou (2019). Two strategies were adopted. First, we considered constant market price of risk. Second, we included time-varying market price of risk. In both cases, we estimated the...
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