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To capture the volatility in the global food commodity prices, we employed two competing models, the thin tailed the … simplicity may lead to unreliable results of the conditional volatility estimates. The paper also shows that the volatility of … food commodity prices characterized with the intermediate and short memory behavior, implying that the volatility of food …
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Following the 2007/09 and subsequent world food price shocks, a growing number of simulation studies predicted their implications on food security. Studies that only require pre-price-hike data and the specification of relevant price or income changes have been advocated as a potential tool to...
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Price forecasting systems are of considerable importance to food security management by governments' and non-governmental organizations. Sparse data availability in low-income economies, however, generally necessitates reliance on reduced form forecasting methods. Relatively recent innovations...
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This review seeks to survey, understand, and reconcile the widely divergent estimates of long-run global crop output, land use, and price projections in the current literature. We review the history of such projections and the different models and assumptions used in these exercises. We then...
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