This study uses Markov-switching models to evaluate the informational content of the term structure as a predictor of recessions in eight OECD countries. The empirical results suggest that for all countries the term spread is sensibly modelled as a two-state regime-switching process. Moreover,...

This paper reviews the usefulness of monetary conditions in the euro area as leading indicators for aggregate demand conditions. Monetary conditions are measured with the MCI concept proposed by the Bank of Canada, and with the yield spread. A central result is that causality runs in both ways...

Der Artikel hebt den Nutzen einer gemeinsamen Währung in der Eurozone für grenzüberschreitende wirtschaftliche Aktivitäten hervor.Es werden die Vorteile einheitlicher Finanzkonditionen zusammengetragen, die das Zusammenwachsen der Wirtschaftskreisläufe unterstützen.