We argue that the Merton (1974) model's relatively high ability to forecast bankruptcy stems from its ability to capture either the chance of net worth dropping below an externally-imposed threshold or of an economic insolvency. Using unique bankruptcy data from fifteen countries, our evidence...

We examine whether real GDP forecasts obtained from the Survey of Professional Forecasters efficiently embody information in the term structure spread. To this end, we employ revised data as well as real-time vintage data, and we also allow for the possible impact of asymmetric loss functions....

The range of non-EPS forecast types provided by individual analysts to I/B/E/S has increased dramatically over time but varies considerably across firms. We propose that in providing a broader range of forecast types analysts can signal superior research ability and research effort. Consistent...