In this paper, we disentangle tax revenue forecast errors into influences stemming from wrong macroeconomic assumptions and false predictions of the elasticities linking the tax base to its corresponding tax type. Across six tax types and the overall tax sum for Germany, we find a heterogeneous...

In the present paper I examine tax revenue projections in Germany over the period 1968 to 2012 with a focus on forecasting rationality. I show that tax revenue forecasts for the medium-term are upward biased. Overoptimistic revenue projections are particularly pronounced after the German...

Solid budgets serve as important quality signals for the electorate. Politicians might therefore face an incentive to influence tax revenue forecasts, which are widely regarded as a key element for budget setups. Looking at the time period from 1996 to 2012, in this study we systematically...