To study coordination in complex social systems such as financial markets, the authors introduce a new prediction market set-up that accounts for fundamental uncertainty. Nonetheless, the market is designed so that its total value is known, and thus its rationality can be evaluated. In two...

We provide a tractable characterization of the sharp identification region of the parameters ø in a broad class of incomplete econometric models. Models in this class have set valued predictions that yield a convex set of conditional or unconditional moments for the observable model variables....

The standard interval forecasting task is modified, asking subjects to provide point predictions for future returns and assess the likelihood of fixed length intervals around their point estimates. The difference between the subjective likelihood estimates and the realized hit rate is advanced...

This study examined participants' willingness to pay for stock price forecasts provided by an algorithm, financial experts, and peers. Participants valued algorithmic advice more highly and relied on it as much as expert advice. This preference for algorithms - despite their similar or even...

Evolutionary explanations of anger as a commitment device hinge on two key assumptions. The first is that it is predictable, ex-ante, whether someone will get angry when feeling that they have been badly treated. The second is that anger is associated with destructive behavior. We test the...