This paper studies the effects of predictability on the earnings-returns relation for individual firms and for the aggregate. We demonstrate that prices better anticipate earnings growth at the aggregate level than at the firm level, which implies that random-walk models are inappropriate for...

Extant literature documents that analyst forecasts are optimistically biased and fail to incorporate information in prior returns. This paper extends similar tests to examine management forecast characteristics. We find that, in contrast to analyst forecast errors, management forecast errors...

This paper studies whether illiquidity affects the predictability of fundamental valuation variables. Firm-level, cross-sectional analyses show that returns of illiquid stocks contain less information about their firm's future earnings growth compared to those of more liquid stocks. A natural...

This paper examines whether analysts have an industry-level information advantage over managers when forecasting earnings. We argue that such an advantage is more likely to exist in industries where firm performance is more sensitive to industry-level external economic forces. We find that for...

This study examines whether we can learn from the behavior of blockchain-based transfers to predict the financing of terrorist attacks. We exploit blockchain transaction transparency to map millions of transfers for hundreds of large on-chain service providers. The mapped data set permits us to...

Purpose: With the development of the transportation, more traveling factors acting on the railway passengers change greatly with the passengers’ choice. With the help of the modern information computing technology, the factors were integrated to realize quantitative analyze according to the...