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We examine the forecasting power of the volatility of the slope of the US-Treasury yield curve on US stock …-market volatility. Consistent with theoretical asset pricing models, we find that the volatility of the slope of the term structure of … interest rates has significant forecasting power on stock market volatility for forecasting horizon ranging from one up to …
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This paper examines return predictability when the investor is uncertain about the right state variables. A novel feature of the model averaging approach used in this paper is to account for finite-sample bias of the coefficients in the predictive regressions. Drawing on an extensive...
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