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Stochastic population analysis : a functional data approach

Fang, Lei; Härdle, Wolfgang - 2015

Based on the Lee-Carter (LC) model, the benchmark in population forecasting, a variety of extensions and modifications are proposed in this paper. We investigate one of the extensions, the Hyndman-Ullah (HU) method and apply it to Asian demographic data sets: China, Japan and Taiwan. It combines...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010477583

A principal component simulation of age-specific fertility : impacts of family and social policy on reproductive behavior in Germany

Vanella, Patrizio; Deschermeier, Philipp - 2018

This contribution proposes a simulation approach for the indirect estimation of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs …) and the total fertility rate (TFR) for Germany via time series modeling of the principal components of the ASFRs. The … probability of 75%. Based on this result, it is unlikely that the fertility level will fall back to its extremely low levels of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011860247

The Impact of Pandemic on Fertility in Russia : A Few Assumptions for the Forecast

Kazenin, Konstantin - 2021

fertility in developed countries. The significance of the outcome of these studies is under consideration designed to forecast … changes in fertility resulted from the pandemic in Russia, as well as to plan state policies to support fertility under the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013230257

Macroeconomic news and market reaction : surprise indexes meet nowcasting

Caruso, Alberto - 2018

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012098059

Endogenous Fluctuations in the Demand for Education

Neugart, Michael; Tuinstra, Jan - 2010

Enrollment rates to higher education reveal quite large variation over time which cannot be explained by productivity shocks alone. We develop a human capital investment model in an overlapping generations framework that features endogenous fluctuations in the demand for education. Agents are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014031777

Predicting Academic Performance

Gallacher, Marcos - 2007

This paper discussed advantages and disadvantages associated with the use of admission tests as predictors of performance in undergraduate studies programs. The paper analyzes performance of economics and business administration students. This performance is linked to admission tests results....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014049191

Forecasting aggregate productivity using information from firm-level data

Bartelsman, Eric J.; Wolf, Zoltán - 2009

This paper contributes to the productivity literature by using results from firm-level productivity studies to improve forecasts of macro-level productivity growth. The paper employs current research methods on estimating firm-level productivity to build times-series components that capture the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011378362

Forecasting Aggregate Productivity Using Information from Firm-Level Data

Bartelsman, Eric J. - 2017

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012976846

Forecasting Profitability

Rosenzweig, Mark R. - 2013

We use newly-available Indian panel data to estimate how the returns to planting-stage investments vary by rainfall realizations. We show that the forecasts significantly affect farmer investment decisions and that these responses account for a substantial fraction of the inter-annual...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013078029

Bayesian Herders : Updating of Rainfall Beliefs in Response to External Climate Forecasts

Lybbert, Travis J.; Barrett, Christopher B.; McPeak, John G. - 2011

Temporal climate risk weighs heavily on many of the world’s poor. Model-based climate forecasts could benefit such populations, provided recipients use forecast information to update climate expectations. We test whether pastoralists in southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya update their...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014182022

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