Risk neutral densities (RND) can be used to forecast the price of the underlying basis for the option, or it may be used to price other derivates based on the same sequence. The method adopted in this paper to calculate the RND is to firts estimate daily the diffusion process of the underlying...

We estimate the process underlying the pricing of American options by using higher-order lattices combined with a multigrid method. This paper also tests whether the risk-neutral densities given from American options provide a good forecasting tool. We use a nonparametric test of the densities...

We present a new, theoretically motivated, forecasting variable for exchange rates that is based on the prices of quanto index contracts, and show via panel regressions that the quanto forecast variable is a statistically and economically significant predictor of currency appreciation. We also...

This paper builds and implements a multifactor stochastic volatility model for the latent (and observable) volatility from the quarter and year forward contracts at the NASDAQ OMX Commodity Exchanges, applying Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methodologies for estimation, inference,...

We develop a stock-flow-consistent agent-based model that comprises a realistic mechanism of money creation and parametrize it to fit actually observed data. The model is used to make out-of-sample projections of broad money and credit developments under the commencement/termination of foreign...

We propose an integrated model of the joint dynamics of FX rates and asset prices for the pricing of FX derivatives, including Quanto products; the model is based on a multivariate construction for Levy processes which proves to be analytically tractable. The approach allows for simultaneous...

In this article, the Universal Approximation Theorem of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) is applied to the SABR stochastic volatility model in order to construct highly efficient representations. Initially, the SABR approximation of Hagan et al. [2002] is considered, then a more accurate...

In this paper we apply the multivariate construction for Lévy processes introduced by Ballotta and Bonfiglioli (2014) to propose an integrated model for the joint dynamics of FX exchange rates and asset prices. We show that the proposed construction is consistent in terms of symmetries with...