This paper explores the relationship between export, import, and output for Thailand over the period from 1990 to 2017. The threshold vector autoregressive (VAR) and threshold vector error correction (VEC) models were applied. The empirical evidence confirms that the export-led growth hypothesis...

This study examined the causal relationship between inflation and economic growth as well as estimating threshold and forecasting of inflation in Nigeria for the period of 1961 { 2016. The study employed Granger causality test, Au- toregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), Autoregressive Integrated...

We examine forecasting performance of the recent fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model. The model is applied to daily polling data of political support in the United Kingdom for 2010 - 2015. We compare with popular competing models and at various forecast horizons. Our...