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Predicting Local Violence
Blair, Robert; Blattman, Christopher; Hartman, Alexandra - 2017
This paper tests the feasibility of local-level violence forecasting. We apply standard prediction models to new data … from 242 Liberian communities to investigate whether it is to possible to predict outbreaks of local violence with … violence in 2010 using 2008 risk factors. We then made forecasts of violence in 2012, before collecting data. Our model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014142292
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Predictive Power at What Cost? Economic and Racial Justice of Data-Driven Algorithms
Jabri, Ranae - 2021
This paper studies how algorithms use variables to maximize predictive power at the cost of group equity. Group inequity arises if variables enlarge disparities in risk scores across groups. I develop a framework to examine a recidivism risk assessment tool using risk score and novel pretrial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013243340
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The Predictability of DOJ Cartel Fines
Connor, John M. - 2016
clandestine cartels. We also find that fines complement other antitrust penalties: the number of months that a corporate defendant …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012979998
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Likelihood Based Inference and Prediction in Spatio-Temporal Panel Count Models for Urban Crimes
Liesenfeld, Roman; Richard, Jean-Francois; Vogler, Jan - 2015
We develop a panel data count model combined with a latent Gaussian spatio-temporal heterogenous state process to analyze monthly severe crimes at the census tract level in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Our data set combines Uniform Crime Reporting data with socio-economic data from the 2000 census....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014135197
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Spatial Panel Count Data : Modeling and Forecasting of Urban Crimes
Glaser, Stephanie; Jung, Robert; Schweikert, Karsten - 2021
The steadily growing access to high-quality spatio-temporal crime count data with a high level of spatial detail allows to uncover interesting relationships between crime types within and between small regional units. Data coherent forecasting of such counts has to take the integer and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013238764
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Space-Time Autoregressive Models and Forecasting National, Regional and State Crime Rates
Shoesmith, Gary - 2014
The recently advanced space-time-autoregressive (ST-AR) model is used to forecast U.S., regional and state violent and property crime rates. The disaggregate state (Florida) violent crime model includes murder, rape, robbery, and assault and the property crime model, burglary, larceny, and motor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014146023
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Machine Learning Can Predict Shooting Victimization Well Enough to Help Prevent It
Heller, Sara B.; Jakubowski, Benjamin; Jelveh, Zubin; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
This paper shows that shootings are predictable enough to be preventable. Using arrest and victimization records for almost 644,000 people from the Chicago Police Department, we train a machine learning model to predict the risk of being shot in the next 18 months. We address central concerns...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334389
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Algorithms, Human Decision-Making and Predictive Policing
Phillips, Peter J.; Pohl, Gabriela - 2021
Given their technical sophistication, it is easy to overlook the human choices that underpin predictive policing algorithms and, importantly, the basic structures of decision theory that it embeds. To make a problem amenable to algorithmic computation, the problem must be transformed, often...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013322251
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Predictive Policing : An Information Design Approach
Ichihashi, Shota - 2022
Citizens may engage in crime, depending on the probability of being searched and their types such as legal earning opportunities. Police observes information about citizens' types and allocates search efforts to catch citizens who commit crimes. I show that the police who has full information...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014076370
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Predicting Violence
Baughman, Shima Baradaran; McIntyre, Frank - 2020
crimes, whether flight risk is linked to pretrial violence, and whether judges can accurately predict which defendants are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014186302