This paper analyzes recession prediction markets from Intrade and PredictIt where individuals bet on the binary outcome of a recession occurring by a certain date. Using a time series of such historical recession prediction market data to measure macroeconomic risk in a variety of asset classes,...

Was the increase in income inequality in the US due to permanent shocks or merely to an increase in the variance of transitory shocks? The implications for consumption and welfare depend crucially on the answer to this question. We use CEX repeated cross-section data on consumption and income to...