One of the main theoretical implications of the present value approach on firm valuation is the hypothesis that dividend yield has a predictive power on future dividend growth. The relevant literature, however, was not able to provide evidence that clearly supports this hypothesis. In this paper...

We have seen China's growing role in the past decades, and the world economy has become more exposed to the influence of China. This paper explores emerging China's impact on the global equity market through the lens of asset pricing. We study the predictive properties of the lagged China...

This paper extends the benchmark Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) term spread approach to recession forecasting by including the stock market macro liquidity deviation factor. We use a probit framework to predict US business cycles, as defined by the NBER between 1959Q1 and 2011Q4. We find that...

We investigate whether unemployment fluctuations generate predictability in the cross-section of currency excess returns. We find that currencies with lower growth in the unemployment rate appreciate while currencies with higher growth in the unemployment rate depreciate. As a result, an...

Empirical Finance is in crisis: Our most important "discovery" tool is historical simulation, and yet, most backtests published in leading Financial journals are flawed.The problem is well-known to professional organizations of Statisticians and Mathematicians, who have publicly criticized the...

I extend the evidence on the basic stylized facts documented for the U.S. variance risk premium (VP) and show that, while VPs in other countries are also positive and time varying, they do not have predictive power for domestic stock returns, in contrast to the implications of existing...

We prove that high simulated performance is easily achievable after backtesting a relatively small number of alternative strategy configurations, a practice we denote “backtest overfitting”. The higher the number of configurations tried, the greater is the probability that the backtest is...

Most publications in Financial ML seem concerned with forecasting prices. While these are worthy endeavors, Financial ML can offer so much more. In this presentation, we review a few important applications that go beyond price forecasting:1. Portfolio construction2. Structural breaks3. Bet...

One of the most exciting recent developments in financial research is the availability of new administrative, private sector and micro-level datasets that did not exist a few years ago. The unstructured nature of many of these observations, along with the complexity of the phenomena they...