the Great Recession, in which the effects of greater model uncertainty may have played a role in keeping inflation rates … equilibrium exists. We study the response differences in the dynamics of the inflation rate to changes in the mean and variance of …

This paper evaluates the predictive out-of-sample forecasting properties of six different economic uncertainty …. The core contention is that economic uncertainty improves both forecast accuracy as well as direction-of-change forecasts … an increased relevance of certain economic uncertainty measures for forecasting growth in both real aggregate as well as …

This paper examines the forecasting performance of a broad monetary aggregate (M3) in predicting euro area inflation … even in the period of the financial and economic crisis. Monetary indicators are useful to predict inflation at the longer … money and inflation, central banks should implement exit strategies from the current policy path, as soon as the financial …

quantity of money and or excess money can be used to forecast inflation. After a preliminary data analysis, money demand …. Using recursive estimates, indicator properties of monetary aggregates for inflation are assessed for the period from 2000 … the one for M2 is strongly influenced by these three observations. While in both cases forecasts for 2010 show inflation …

monetary and credit aggregates are very often selected among the top predictors of inflation, with their predictive power … and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of …

monetary and credit aggregates are very often selected among the top predictors of inflation, with their predictive power … and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of …