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The bright but right view? : a new type of evidence on entrepreneurial optimism
Bengtsson, Ola; Ekeblom, Daniel - 2014
dataset (180,814 responses) that allows us to create a good measure of entrepreneurial optimism. Our measure is based on the … optimism because they are completely uncorrelated with the individual’s own life or work situation (which is not optimism) and … conditions. Our data highlight the importance of measuring optimism correctly. About half of the survey respondents differ in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010247380
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Individual expectations and aggregate behavior in learning to forecast experiments
Hommes, Cars (contributor); Lux, Thomas (contributor) - 2008
Models with heterogeneous interacting agents explain macro phenomena through interactions at the micro level. We propose genetic algorithms as a model for individual expectations to explain aggregate market phenomena. The model explains all stylized facts observed in aggregate price fluctuations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003777257
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Traders, Forecasters and Financial Instability : A Model of Individual Learning of Anchor-and-Adjustment Heuristics
Makarewicz, Tomasz - 2019
Behavioral and experimental literature on financial instability focuses on either subjective price expectations (Learning-to-Forecast experiments) or individual trading (Learning-to-Optimize experiments). Bao et al. (2018) have shown that subjects have problems with both tasks. In this paper, I...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012894616
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Simple Forecasting Heuristics that Make Us Smart : Evidence from Different Market Experiments
Anufriev, Mikhail - 2015
We study a model in which individual agents use simple linear first order price forecasting rules, adapting them to the complex evolving market environment with a smart Genetic Algorithm optimization procedure. The novelties are: (1) a parsimonious experimental foundation of individual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013018941
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Traders, forecasters and financial instability : a model of individual learning of anchor-and-adjustment heuristics
Makarewicz, Tomasz - 2019
Behavioral and experimental literature on financial instability focuses on either subjective price expectations (Learning-to-Forecast experiments) or individual trading (Learning-to-Optimize experiments). Bao et al. (2017) have shown that subjects have problems with both tasks. In this paper, I...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011956452
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Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments
Hommes, Cars H.; Kopányi-Peuker, Anita; Sonnemans, Joep - 2019
We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625
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Learning, Forecasting and Optimizing : An Experimental Study
Bao, Te; Duffy, John; Hommes, Cars H. - 2016
Rational Expectations (RE) models have two crucial dimensions: 1) agents correctly forecast future prices given all available information, and 2) given expectations, agents solve optimization problems and these solutions in turn determine actual price realizations. Experimental testing of such...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014172774
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Learning, Forecasting and Optimizing : An Experimental Study
Bao, Te; Duffy, John; Hommes, Cars H. - 2013
Rational Expectations (RE) models have two crucial dimensions: agents correctly forecast future prices given all available information, and given expectations, agents solve optimization problems and these solutions in turn determine actual price realizations. Experimental testing of such models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014175810
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Timing of Predictions in Dynamic Cheap Talk : Experts vs. Quacks
Smirnov, Aleksei - 2019
The paper studies a dynamic communication game in the presence of adverse selection and career concerns. A forecaster of privately known competence, who cares about his reputation, chooses the timing of the forecast regarding the outcome of some future event. We find that in all equilibria in a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012859563
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Do macroeconomic shocks affect intuitive inflation forecasting? : an experimental investigation
Deversi, Marvin - 2014
In an experimental setting impulse-response behaviour in intuitive inflation forecasting is analysed. Participants were asked to forecast future values of inflation for a fictitious economy after receiving charts and lists of past values of inflation and output gap. Thirty periods were...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010437484