We conduct a pseudo real-time analysis of the existence and severity of speculative bubbles in eleven US sectors over the period 1973-2015. Based on the real-time bubble signals, a trading strategy is constructed which switches funds between the market index and those industry sectors that...

Commercially available factor models provide good predictions of short-horizon (e.g. one day or one week) portfolio volatility, based on estimated portfolio factor loadings and responsive estimates of factor volatility. These predictions are of significant value to certain short-term investors,...

The purpose of this paper is to investigate if the St Louis Federal Financial Stress Index (STLFSI) can be used to predict the EUR/USD, AUD/USD and CAD/USD. Building on Gurrib (2018) who proposed a unified financial condition index and tested the predictability of the index on major foreign...

We employ and examine vine copulas in modeling symmetric and asymmetric dependency structures and forecasting financial returns. We analyze the asset allocations performed during the 2008–2009 financial crisis and test different portfolio strategies such as maximum Sharpe ratio, minimum...

Risk forecasting is crucial for informed investment decision-making. Moreover, the salience of investment risk increases during economically uncertain times. In this paper, we study how sell-side analysts form expectations of firm risk, under different macroeconomic conditions (low versus high...

We study the non-linear causal relation between uncertainty-due-to-infectious-diseases and stock-bond correlation. To this end, we use high-frequency 1-min data to compute daily realized measures of correlation and jumps, and then, we employ a nonlinear Granger causality test with the use of...

We examine the pricing of tail risk in international stock markets. We find that the tail risk of different countries is highly integrated. Introducing a new World Fear index, we find that local and global aggregate market returns are mainly driven by global tail risk rather than local tail...

Regular or automated processes require reliable software applications that provide accurate volatility and Value-at-Risk forecasts. The univariate and multivariate GARCH models proposed in the literature are reviewed and the suitability of selected R functions for automated forecasting systems...

Purpose: This study investigates the behavior of sell-side analysts covering firms that are about to experience breaks in strings of consecutive quarterly earnings increases.Design/methodology/approach: We estimate the likelihood of analysts predicting a break using logit regressions for 1.8M...

Much of the debate around a potential British exit (Brexit) from the European Union has centred on the potential macroeconomic impact. In this paper, we instead focus on understanding market expectations for price action around the Brexit referendum date. Extracting implied distributions from...