The 2015 workshop on “Recent evolutions of oil and commodity prices”, organized by FEEM, focused on the sharp decline in the oil price in 2014. High crude oil production and slower demand growth explain a large fraction of the current low level of prices, but a complex set of factors is...

This paper, in the form of a treatise, estimates a U.S. shale-oil production trend forecast and explores potential consequences of that trend on U.S. and World macroeconomic conditions and growth prospects. It explains the economics of the Hubbert curve including a literature review both pro and...

With the increasing integration of wind and photovoltaic power in the whole European power system, there is a longing for detecting how to trade energy in the ever-changing intraday market from electric power industries. The intraday trading becomes even more relevant in the wake of the European...

Global warming, sea level rise, and extreme weather events have made climate change a top priority for policymakers across the globe. But which policies are best suited to tackle the enormous challenges presented by our changing climate? This Article proposes that policymakers turn to prediction...

Fossil fuels support a lot of economies worldwide but also generate a lot of quantities of carbon dioxide when burned. These carbon emissions trap heat in the atmosphere and lead to climate change and consequential environmental degradation and health issues. One of the fundamental questions is...

This paper analyzes the impact of model complexity on the valuation of a project financed power plant along two dimensions: The NPV distribution and the expected cumulative default probability of the project. Model complexity is separated into forecast and simulation complexity. Thereby, we aim...

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) regularly publishes monthly and quarterly forecasts of the price of crude oil for horizons up to two years, which are widely used by practitioners. Traditionally, such out-of-sample forecasts have been largely judgmental, making them difficult to...

According to the Rockets and Feathers hypothesis (RFH), the transmission mechanism of positive and negative changes in the price of crude oil to the price of gasoline is asymmetric. Although there have been many contributions documenting that downstream prices are more reactive to increases than...

Data centres are a critical component of the modern, connected economy. They facilitate activities such as cloud computing, communication and data storage. In Ireland, the increasing presence and significant electricity demand of data centres is a growing concern for electricity generation and...