This study approaches the Quantity Theory of Money at a conceptual level, asking how it can be most reasonably interpreted and quantitatively assessed. The resulting approach is straightforward. Unlike studies relying on other methods we find evidence of its linchpin prediction that is not...

This article examines, in the light of recent events, the origins of the difficulties that current macroeconomic models have in encompassing the sort of sudden crisis which we are currently observing. The reasons for this are partly due to fundamental problems with the underlying General...

We are interested, in this paper, in studying the effects that central banks exert on private sector forecasts by means of their transparency and communication measures. We analyze the impact of central bank transparency on the accuracy of the consensus forecasts (usually calculated as the mean...

This paper attempts to examine, compare and forecast the per capita GDP of India, the USA, China, and Japan for a period of ten years from 2020 to 2029. It studies the concept of economic convergence which states that the developing economies’ per capita income levels tend to move at a faster...

The present pitch paper intends to pitch the research idea, its methodology, and possible outcomes by following Faff (2015) pitch my research template. The research topic is "COVID-19 Led Economic Recession Prediction" which aims to forecast the in and out of sample recession indicator values...

This study approaches the Quantity Theory of Money at a conceptual level, asking how it can be most reasonably interpreted and quantitatively assessed. The resulting approach is straightforward. Unlike studies relying on other methods we find evidence of its linchpin prediction that is not...

This paper investigates the existence of any systematic relationship between preliminary estimates and subsequent revisions of GDP growth rates in Macedonia. Accordingly, we use various statistical tools for testing the "news" and "noise" hypotheses and empirically assess if GDP data revisions...

This paper is based around outlining and illustrating the use of a co-evolutionary method for long-term macro-economic forecasting. The paper includes economic forecasts for the UK to 2060 using a novel approach based on Multichannel Singular Spectral Analysis (MSSA). The forecasts are based on...

Evaluation methodologies for rare events from meteorology, psychology and medical diagnosis are used to examine the value of probability forecasts of real GDP declines during the current (Q0) and each of the next four quarters (Q1-Q4) using data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We...

The dismal performance of professional economic forecasters to foresee the financial crisis has raised serious questions as to the credibility of modern economics. Several efforts have been made to account for this failure. The paper offers a tentative answer based on the lessons that may be...