This paper attempts to contribute in several ways. Theoretically, it proposes simple models of house price dynamics and construction dynamics, all based on forward-looking agents' maximization problems, which may carry independent interests. Simplified version of the model implications are...

This paper introduces "Terraced" Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models, an innovative twist on traditional VAR modeling which allows the econometrician to simultaneously forecast both exogenous and endogenous variables and the confidence intervals around those forecasts.In an application of our...

Civil unrest is a powerful form of collective human dynamics, which has led to major transitions of societies in modern history. The study of collective human dynamics, including collective aggression, has been the focus of much discussion in the context of modeling and identification of...

The prompt availability of information on the current state of the economy in real-time is required for prediction purposes and crucial for timely policy adjustment and economic decision-making. While important macroeconomic indicators are reported only quarterly and also published with...

In this paper we present two new composite leading indicators of economicactivity in Germany estimated using a dynamic factor model with and withoutregime switching. The obtained optimal inferences of business cycle turningpoints indicate that the two-state regime switching procedure leads to...

This dissertation comprises three distinct economic stduies. The first deals with the origin of business cycle fluctuations and the other two with the measurement of financial constraints and the identification of the respective treatment effect.