This study explores the predictive power of new estimators of the equity variance risk premium and conditional variance for future excess stock market returns, economic activity, and financial instability, both during and after the last global financial crisis. These estimators are obtained from...

We analyze the stock market return predictability for three different periods. We evaluate the conditional variance (CV) and the variance risk premium (VRP) as predictors of stock market returns for which we are using well-established versions of the heterogeneous auto-regressive (HAR) model and...